Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey holds a commanding 25-point lead over Republican challenger Mike Minogue less than three weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll that also shows U.S. Sen. Ed Markey running away with his own re-election bid. Healey leads Minogue 57% to 32%, with independent candidate Andrea James pulling 6% support, while Markey tops Republican nominee John Deaton by more than 25 points in the race for Senate.
Fresh Numbers From UMass Amherst and WCVB
The findings come from a UMass Amherst/WCVB poll conducted October 5 through October 12, which UMass describes as surveying 800 registered voters, though WBUR described the same respondents as likely voters. The poll carries a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. As MassLive reported, Minogue is a millionaire former biotech executive making his first bid for elected office, and the gap with Healey has held steady even as he makes his closing pitch to voters.
Healey's job approval now sits at 58%, her highest mark since February 2025, per the same account. Tatishe Nteta, the provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst who directs the poll, said Healey leads across gender, income, racial and generational groups, with women, middle-aged voters and voters of color favoring her by wide margins. Nteta added that Healey has maintained strong support among moderates and independents — the voting blocs that have historically powered Republican gubernatorial wins in Massachusetts.
A Lopsided Gender and Education Split
The gender gap in the poll is stark: Healey leads among women 66% to 24%, while her edge among men is narrower at 47% to 42%. Education also sorts the electorate sharply, with Healey ahead 57% to 33% among voters holding a college degree and a lopsided 73% to 24% among those with a postgraduate degree, according to the same UMass report.
Her approval numbers tell a similar story of a deeply polarized base. Healey's approval dips below a majority only among independents (40%), voters with some college experience (48%), Republicans (12%), conservatives (17%) and Trump voters (16%), the poll found. Nteta said Healey's continued popularity compounds the challenge of unseating an incumbent Democratic governor in a historically blue state.
Minogue Tied to Trump in Voters' Minds
Ray La Raja, a UMass political science professor, said voters see very little distance between Minogue and President Donald Trump — a connection reflected in the numbers, as more than 8 in 10 voters surveyed placed Minogue and Trump in the same policy camp, per MassLive's reporting. Trump lost Massachusetts by more than 25 points, a fact that underscores why that association could be politically costly for a Republican statewide candidate in the Bay State.
Abortion has emerged as a flashpoint in the governor's race. Minogue, a father of two daughters, opposes abortion but has said he sympathizes with women making the difficult decision whether to end a pregnancy, and he has said he would swear an oath to uphold the law and keep his personal beliefs from interfering with his duties as governor. During their second and final debate at WCVB-TV studios in Needham on October 15, Minogue dodged two questions about repealing a state law that extends abortion access beyond 24 weeks. Healey used the moment to draw a contrast, saying, “There's only one of us here who will protect women's access to healthcare. I will protect women's access to healthcare in Massachusetts. Mike Minogue won't.” Minogue accused Healey of taking a cheap shot.
Markey Cruises, Senate Race Largely Steady
In the Senate contest, Markey — who is seeking a third six-year term — leads Deaton by more than 25 points, according to MassLive's reporting on the new poll. The two faced off in a debate at WBZ-TV studios in Boston on October 13. That lead tracks with earlier findings from the UNH Survey Center, which reported on September 24 that Markey held a comfortable lead over Deaton that was largely unchanged from August.
The governor's race hasn't always looked quite so settled. An August UMass Amherst/WCVB poll had shown Healey leading either potential Republican nominee by roughly 20 points, around the same time Minogue was beating fellow Republican Brian Shortsleeve 53% to 26% among likely GOP primary voters. And per WGBH, polling in the race has consistently shown Healey ahead by double digits, even as a University of New Hampshire poll found Minogue narrowing that lead to 16 points and an internal poll from a super PAC backing Minogue showed him running neck and neck with Healey among voters who'd actually seen or heard about the race.
With turnout and enthusiasm already shaping up as a factor, 85% of voters in the new UMass poll who plan to cast a ballot said they are somewhat or very enthusiastic about voting on November 3. Nteta said Healey's broad-based support puts her in a strong position to retain the governorship as the campaign enters its final stretch.
